38 – No days off

True North Episode 38 – No days off

0:50:28 | August 27, 2025

🧭 MSTR True North episode 38: Soleil & Dan break down Strategy’s credit stack, BTC accumulation strategy, preferreds, rate risk, and AI macro themes. Topics also include Strike, Strife, Stretch, MSTR mNAV, BTC vs gold, and Fed policy.

🎛️ As of this recording, 8/27/25, Strategy’s (MSTR) performance:
Open: $348.68
Close: $342.06
Volume: 8,379,611 shares
mNAV: 1.56
Market Cap: ~97.36B
U.S. Market Cap Ranking: 108
BTC: 632,457

⏱️ TIMESTAMPS & INSIGHTS:

• 00:00:00 – Intro: filtering out the noise and providing signal
• 00:03:19 – Macro Indicators: Services PMI ties to BTC moves
• 00:05:42 – Spot BTC Positioning: Low leverage, resilient long-term strategy
• 00:12:25 – Duration gap: what’s the next pref flavor to fill the gap
• 00:14:23 – Labor Market & Fed Pivot: Weak payrolls, yield curve, rate cut setup
• 00:18:55 – AI’s attack on jobs: Bitcoin is the only way to capture the deflationary effects
• 00:22:12 – Inflation Outlook & Fed: Tariffs, base case, policy shift
• 00:25:38 – Bitcoin vs Gold Thesis: BTC outperformance, gold lag on inflation
• 00:30:07 – MNAVs & Fear Index: Sentiment tools, credit signals, BTC risk
• 00:33:17 – Stretch Yield Mechanics: Monthly coupon, par targeting strategy
• 00:37:40 – S&P 500 Inclusion Odds: Market betting, mispriced probabilities
• 00:40:33 – BTC Valuation Frameworks: Miner breakevens, long-dated call logic
• 00:43:46 – MSTR Capital Forecast: Preferreds, ATM issuance, $175B growth thesis

Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions.