True North Episode 54 – Margin Isn’t Calling!

🧭 MSTR True North Episode 54: A deep dive into Bitcoin’s drawdown, macro liquidity, and why this cycle differs. We break down capital structure, leverage myths, margin-call fears, treasury concentration, short-risk asymmetry, and how convex balance sheets create explosive upside.

🎛️ As of this recording, 2/4/26, Strategy’s (MSTR) performance:

• Open: $120.25
• Close: $129.09
• Volume: 23.8M shares
• mNAV: ~1.03
• Market Cap: ~$38.9B
• U.S. Market Cap Ranking: —
• BTC: 713,502

⏱️ Timestamps & Insights:

• 00:00:00 – Intro agenda framing: NFA context and True North overview
• 00:03:38 – Bitcoin market drawdown: 42 percent decline framing
• 00:09:23 – Proof of reserves debate: Custody transparency and risk
• 00:12:39 – Macro framework setup: Rates, liquidity, and context
• 00:15:10 – Macro regime comparison: Liquidity rising versus 2022 contraction
• 00:18:02 – MSTR market dynamics: Equity pressure and hedging behavior
• 00:20:00 – Institutional market lens: Event context and capital markets views
• 00:26:25 – Margin call misconceptions: Liquidity versus leverage reality
• 00:28:41 – Capital structure deep dive: Balance sheet leverage and FUD breakdown
• 00:35:35 – Accretion and convexity mechanics: Bitcoin per share and upside asymmetry
• 00:41:12 – Capital model transition: Converts replaced by preferred equity
• 00:43:12 – Regulatory and stablecoin shifts: TradFi integration
• 00:46:04 – Bitcoin treasury model: Balance sheet-first companies
• 00:51:07 – Treasury concentration risk: Dominant holder analysis
• 00:55:04 – Bitcoin scarcity math: Rule of 72 framework
• 00:57:25 – Coverage framework reset: Net capital versus leverage fear
• 01:05:29 – Capital stack hierarchy: Senior debt, preferred, and equity
• 01:10:08 – Converts versus common equity: Dilution and coverage math
• 01:13:33 – Upcoming earnings call: What to watch and why it matters
• 01:20:49 – Balance sheet resilience: Liquidity runway and no margin calls
• 01:27:45 – Treasury concentration and survivability: Why failures don’t matter
• 01:32:38 – Treasury concentration math: Scale dominance and systemic impact
• 01:35:41 – Bitcoin technical distributions: Wallet structure and custody flows
• 01:41:14 – Short risk asymmetry: Explosive upside and forced covering
• 01:42:50 – Balance sheet endgame: Bitcoin as reserve asset
• 01:45:08 – Final thoughts from the team

Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions.