Episode 40 – “MSTR Uptober”

True North Episode 40 – “MSTR Uptober”

02:10:20 | October 1, 2025

🧭 MSTR True North episode 40: The group dives deep into Bitcoin investing, capital allocation, risk management, and leverage. They explore mNAV, treasury plays, macro signals, and why fixed income products are reshaping long-term portfolios.

🎛️ As of this recording, 10/01/25, Strategy’s (MSTR) performance:
Open: $332.47
Close: $338.41
Volume: 13,994,830 shares
mNAV: 1.47
Market Cap: $97.16B
BTC: 640,031

⏱️ TIMESTAMPS & INSIGHTS:

• 00:00:00 – Cue the music: episode 40 agenda
• 00:04:45 – Strategy statistics: the math behind the balance sheet
          Fed Liquidity & Leverage: Infinite cash and leverage dynamics
• 00:07:02 – Q3 Earnings & Tax Impact: $10 EPS, AMT guidance clears risk
• 00:09:11 – Bullish Macro Setup: Log fractals and cycle alignment bullish for BTC
• 00:14:08 – Cycle Cloud Framework: Using volatility-adjusted trends to map BTC moves
• 00:18:03 – Position Sizing Strategy: Nvidia to MSTR rotation example
• 00:21:19 – Market Multiples & MNAV Gap: Comparing Apploven and MSTR value
• 00:24:08 – Bitcoin Validation vs Legitimization: Market slow to accept BTC metrics
• 00:25:59 – Equity Issuance & MNAV: Capital structure insights from Buffett
• 00:36:33 – Bad Bond of the Week: Hertz 2029 bond, 10% yield, high distress
• 00:42:20 – Miner Leverage & Energy Upside: Asymmetric plays via energy contracts
• 00:45:08 – HPC AI Shift in Mining: Pivot from mining to compute centers
• 00:51:13 – Energy Risk & Innovation: AI compute demand vs energy supply
• 00:54:28 – Options Strategy for Miners: Call spreads on IBIT vs miners
• 00:59:20 – Efficient Frontier & Bitcoin: Time horizon reshapes risk/reward
• 01:03:04 – Miner Capital Rotation: Navigating hype vs fundamentals
• 01:07:37 – Adrian & Mason: Final thoughts on broken money
• 01:16:12 – Mining True North: Finding opportunities as a hedge fund and beating the hurdle rate
• 01:20:09 – Bitcoin vs Gold: Scale, upside, and time horizon
• 01:23:06 – Cross-Gen Communication: Educating on Bitcoin income products
• 01:32:51 – Advisor Adoption Lag: Compliance vs product performance
• 01:40:08 – Bitcoin Buybacks Begin: Sequins, Empory Digital, and mNAV defense
• 01:48:14 – Detaching Emotion: Rational thesis-driven investing
• 01:52:12 – Retail Access Shift: STRC on Robinhood and tokenized stocks
• 02:00:56 – Final Thoughts: The great reset

Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions.