Episode 43 – “Rate My Stock / Risk of Credit”

True North Episode 43 – “Rate My Stock / Risk of Credit”

01:58:46 | October 29, 2025

🧭 MSTR True North episode 43: This episode breaks down return of capital investing, credit ratings, risk underwriting, and structured yield products – framed around macro signals, mNAV, capital allocation, and long-term value.

🎛️ As of this recording, 10/29/25, Strategy’s (MSTR) performance:
Open: $284.38
Close: $275.36
Volume: 10,184,060 shares
mNAV: 1.35
Market Cap: $79.08B
U.S. Market Cap Ranking: 134
BTC: 640,808

⏱️ TIMESTAMPS & INSIGHTS:

• 00:00:00 – Cue the music: Agenda, mission statement and NFA
• 00:03:14 – Bitcoin Capital Structure: Assets, leverage, and dividend coverage
• 00:04:45 – Downside Risk: Asset strength and the balance sheet’s potential reaction to BTC price drops
• 00:06:56 – S&P Rating: Bitcoin gets zero credit
• 00:10:02 – Collateral Bias: Real estate vs Bitcoin treatment
• 00:11:47 – Liquidity Hierarchy: BTC as backstop, rating vs capital reality
• 00:13:48 – Credit Ratings Disconnect: Asset strength vs market perception
• 00:17:16 – Liquidity Fallacy: DVDs, bonds, and Bitcoin
• 00:19:50 – You can’t rate something you’ve never sold?: Grain knows best
• 00:22:23 – Asset Yield: Real estate vs Bitcoin income
• 00:25:00 – Arbitrage Thesis: BTC vs CPI and USD melt
• 00:26:44 – Credit Strategy: 20% BTC as loan collateral
• 00:28:07 – Bitcoin as Value Store: Wealth behavior explained
• 00:30:34 – Subsidized Real Estate: Tax code vs digital assets
• 00:31:53 – Amazon Layoffs: AI vs labor and cost structure
• 00:33:30 – Creative Destruction: Wikipedia vs Grokpedia
• 00:36:30 – Investing in AI: Gold, treasuries, or Bitcoin
• 00:37:58 – Debasement Trade: Picking long-term winners
• 00:40:30 – White-Collar Shock: AI disrupting high earners
• 00:42:34 – Sticky Labor: Hiring freeze vs layoffs
• 00:43:42 – Economic Bifurcation: Utopia or dystopia ahead
• 00:46:10 – Productivity Divide: Asset owners vs displaced labor
• 00:47:46 – Money Printing: Masking AI-driven deflation
• 00:49:13 – Bitcoin Disruption: Strategy and bond market impact
• 00:50:34 – Value Flow: AI output into scarce assets
• 00:51:43 – Household AI: Autonomous agents as labor shift
• 00:56:19 – Scarcity Signaling: Luxury goods and digital value
• 00:57:25 – Digital Credit: Yield definitions and legal nuance
• 00:59:11 – Return of Capital Strategy: Tax efficiency and long-term planning
• 01:05:48 – Investment Structure Leverage: Return of capital vs yield mechanics
• 01:08:05 – Global risk mispricing: Underwriting and simulating black swans
• 01:14:30 – Tax Implications of Growth: Regulatory risk with high adoption
• 01:16:40 – Credit Ratings Open Access: How ratings unlock capital pools
• 01:21:05 – Skepticism of High Yields: Understanding 15–20% annual returns
• 01:24:53 – Bitcoin Usability Debate: Utility vs store of value arguments
• 01:27:34 – Spending Bitcoin in Practice: Use cases and behavioral shifts
• 01:30:07 – Structured Notes and Bitcoin: Risk reduction using equity blends
• 01:34:40 – Bitcoin Black Swan Insurance: Quantifying catastrophic tail risk
• 01:37:07 – Bitcoin vs Altcoin Credit: Risk spreads in crypto-backed debt
• 01:40:27 – Risk is Just Math: Insurance roots and probability logic
• 01:43:29 – Bitcoin Cycle Skepticism: Macro links and market correlations
• 01:48:08 – Fear, Volatility, and Cycles: Debunking BTC equity drag theory
• 01:50:06 – Credit Expansion Mechanics: Leverage, interest rates, and debt
• 01:53:18 – Benchmarking Yield to Duration: Strife and Stretch yield logic
• 01:54:54 – Evolving Perspectives: Learning, adapting, and quantifying risk
• 01:56:16 – Final thoughts

Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions.