Episode 46 – “And Then They Fight You”

True North Episode 46 – “And Then They Fight You”

01:51:02 | November 26, 2025

🧭 MSTR True North – Episode 46

Recorded: November 26, 2025

This early midweek call dives into digital credit catalysts and BTC treasury strategies. From MSCI index shocks to JP Morgan’s structured notes, the crew covers mNAV math, leverage mechanics, and how institutional demand is accelerating Bitcoin adoption across capital markets.

🎛️ Strategy (MSTR) Performance:
Open: $173.69
Close: $175.64
Volume: 19,829,181 Shares
mNAV: 1.13
Market Cap: $50.48B
U.S. Market Cap Rank: 213
BTC Holdings: 649,870

⏱️ TIMESTAMPS & INSIGHTS:

• 00:00:00 – Cue the music and intro: Agenda and NFA disclaimer
• 00:04:13 – BTC price analysis: MACD signals, macro climate, and MSTR correlation
• 00:09:06 – Bitcoin leverage & transparency: Exposure math, long-term amplification, Strategy Tracker
• 00:12:37 – Entry Strategy Basics: Pricing discipline, tax implications, buying low
• 00:14:08 – Real-Time Transparency: 24/7 BTC metrics and unit-of-account shift
• 00:15:54 – Measuring balance sheet strength: Risk tolerance & TradFi valuation lens
• 00:19:46 – MSCI Index Shock: Digital-asset exclusions and capital-flow risk
• 00:24:14 – MSTR Short Hedging: Borrow costs, downside leverage, long-holder hedges
• 00:29:00 – JP Morgan Structured Note: Illiquidity, capped upside, principal risk
• 00:36:14 – Institutional Bitcoin Demand: ETFs, muni bonds, state treasury buying
• 00:41:05 – Stride vs Strife: Preferred structures, arbitrage spreads, levered beta
• 00:46:00 – Yield Mechanics: Bond pricing, collateral growth, preferred income
• 00:51:28 – Financial Engineering: Dividends, dilution math, capital efficiency
• 00:55:13 – Amplification and mNAV: SATs/share math, liquidation prefs, leverage
• 01:02:10 – Synthetic BTC Hedging: Downside structures, seller advantage
• 01:05:07 – mNAV Valuation Framework: Assets minus prefs, transparent accounting
• 01:09:39 – Corporate Arbitrage: EPS shaping, buybacks, equity issuance strategy
• 01:16:52 – Real Estate Parallel: Permanent equity, HELOC analogy, carry trades
• 01:20:25 – Scaling Capital Structure: Pref issuance, target leverage ratios
• 01:25:20 – Bitcoin CAGR Edge: Historical return percentiles, timing signals
• 01:30:10 – Volatility Compression: Market size, long-term BTC stability
• 01:34:09 – Institutional Signals: ETF options expansion, ratings pressure, state buys
• 01:38:50 – JP Morgan Influence Map: Margin shifts, index rules, contradictions
• 01:45:19 – Community Response: MSTR defense, liquidity lockouts, gamma setups
• 01:49:24 – Bitcoin Treasury Future: Issuance scale, compounding, long-run adoption
• 01:50:30 – Closing Remarks: Holiday sendoff and final outlook

Disclaimer:
The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors. Please consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risk, and you are solely responsible for your decisions.