True North Episode 56 – The Quiet Accumulation

🧭 MSTR True North Episode 56: The crew dives deep into Strategy’s capital structure, rising BTC per share, AI-driven disruption, and regulatory momentum that is brewing. The team breaks down digital credit strength, supply math, and why this cycle may be structurally different.

🎛️ As of this recording, 2/18/26, Strategy’s (MSTR) performance:

• Open: $127.63
• Close: $125.20
• Volume: 17.31M shares
• mNAV: ~0.99
• Market Cap: ~$44.5B
• U.S. Market Cap Ranking: ~#246
• BTC: 717,131

⏱️ Timestamps & Insights:

• 00:00:00 – Intro agenda framing: NFA context and True North overview
• 00:03:01 – Bear market sentiment: Bitcoin Investor Week tone, stablecoin utility, and builder resilience
• 00:10:14 – Institutional pricing signal: Strategy leverage, preferred credit quality, and market confidence
• 00:13:43 – Conviction over price: Unflappable mindset, opportunity cost, and long-term Bitcoin allocation
• 00:17:04 – Moving average analysis: 200-week trend strength, Tesla comparison, and Strategy valuation reset
• 00:21:18 – Death cross dynamics: Technical lag, bottom timing risk, and Strategy mispricing debate
• 00:24:10 – Binary risk framing: Zero thesis, refinancing fears, and long-term leverage confidence
• 00:30:00 – M2 money supply framework: Bitcoin adjusted for monetary expansion and debasement baseline
• 00:30:05 – Bitcoin-gold ratio: Relative valuation and macro positioning
• 00:35:35 – Correlation breakdown: Commodities spike, multi-strat deleveraging, and Bitcoin price pressure
• 00:40:07 – Private credit liquidity risk: Redemption halts, digital credit transparency, and STRC durability
• 00:47:08 – Preferred TAM expansion: Capital stack opportunity size
• 00:48:50 – Bitcoin supply & AI shock: Issuance math and exponential disruption
• 00:49:14 – Supply convergence model: Strategy vs remaining Bitcoin issuance
• 00:58:00 – AI disruption wave: Cost collapse, software commoditization, and capital flight to Bitcoin
• 01:04:25 – Capital market disruption: AI acceleration compressing equity durability and IPO stability
• 01:08:39 – Digital credit track record: STRC durability, liquidity edge, and goodwill risk exposure
• 01:12:24 – Strategy World 2026 preview: True North event agenda and digital credit focus
• 01:16:15 – Strategy capital plan debate: ATM runway, preferred issuance, and demand elasticity
• 01:19:28 – Stretch distribution focus: Digital credit education and execution phase
• 01:23:23 – Yield spread advantage: STRC vs stablecoins and capital stack strength
• 01:28:24 – On-chain capital rotation: Stablecoin yield switch into STRC
• 01:30:24 – Regulatory & exponential convergence: Stablecoin policy momentum and AI-driven Bitcoin adoption
• 01:30:24 – Bull market convexity: Balance sheet structure and Bitcoin per share expansion
• 01:40:07 – Final thoughts: Fiscal debasement and long-term Bitcoin conviction

Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions.